Shurtleff aims to Cannon-ize Bennett
By Reid Wilson and Aaron Blake
Posted: 05/20/09 06:38 PM [ET]
Utah Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) finally made it official on Wednesday: He’s challenging Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) in a primary next year.
Before I get breathless e-mails reminding me that Utah has nominating conventions before primaries, let me repeat: Shurtleff is challenging Bennett in a primary next year.
Some may recall last year when Republican Jason Chaffetz narrowly missed nabbing the GOP nomination over Rep. Chris Cannon (R-Utah) at a convention of delegates. And truth is, Shurtleff could wrap things up at the convention, too.
But my money is on him having to survive the convention, versus him winning outright at it. The most likely scenario: Shurtleff will hope to do well enough to get to the primary, decided by voters, and win the nomination there, as Chaffetz did.
Here’s why:
Whatever you can say about Bennett, he’s not nearly as unpopular as Cannon. In fact, he has extremely good numbers.
Even a Shurtleff campaign poll leaked to The Salt Lake Tribune on Tuesday showed Bennett with a 71 percent favorable rating among delegates to the nominating convention. Among those delegates, Bennett holds a 38-31 lead.
To secure the nomination at the convention, Shurtleff would have to get 60 percent of them to support him. That would mean he would effectively get all of the undecided delegates from his own poll.
Shurtleff’s poll also showed a much closer primary election, with Bennett ahead 40-37 among primary voters. This comes after a Research 2000 poll for the liberal website Daily Kos showed Bennett ahead 46-20 in February.
But even if the latter hews closer to reality, the primary is still Shurtleff’s best chance; he has an incumbent under 50 percent, and he only needs to beat him by one vote there.
The good news for Shurtleff is that a third candidate won’t mess things up by stealing anti-incumbent votes.
Even if former state party Chairman Tim Bridgewater follows through and runs for the seat, whoever comes up third at the nominating convention will be instantly out of the race. That would pave the way for a head-to-head Bennett-Shurtleff match-up at the convention; if neither gets 60 percent, the GOP primary electorate decides.
— A.B.
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